Bedard vs. Santana: Why Agreeing With the Mets Doesn't Make Me a Hypocrit

A tale of two trades. Two pitchers. Two franchises. Two cities.

If Charles Dickens were around, he'd have me arrested for plagarism. That's not true, but he would insult me for how weak of an intro that was.

While that lacked my usual charm (I apologize), it is true though. Pending the completion of the Alex Rodriguez Contract equivalent for pitchers by the Mets/Johan and Seattle getting Erik Bedard, the change felt by these transactions will be reflected in more than just depth charts and season handbooks.

The effect will not be the same for Minnesota (technically Minneapolis, just so everyone realizes I know that Minnesota is a state, not a city) and Baltimore. However, the trades look so similiar on paper:

• Two #1 pitchers traded for 4 prospects each.
• Both pitchers felt they weren't given an extension offer that was worth enough money/when they wanted it.
• The majority of these prospects were the top prospects of each organization (Mets/Seattle).

So, why do I think Bedard-to-Seattle is a wrong move yet Santana-to-New York is the best trade (not acquisition, no one would argue getting a Bedard or a Santana isn't a great acquisition) of this offseason? Well, I think it is obvious but for the sake of blogs everywhere I'll lay it out for you here.

1. Santana and Bedard are not on the same level as Starting Pitchers

That is a pretty straight forward yet debatable sentence. I personally don't give Erik Bedard lights out ace status because of a year and a half of solid work. I didn't believe Josh Beckett was an ace just after a gusty World Series against the New York Yankees. He's getting there and is building his reputation, but it takes time. Bedard had a great season last year. He probably has accumulated a year and a half of time where it can be said that he was a dominant pitcher. Meanwhile, Johan Santana has been down right lethal since he's officially joined the Twins' rotation and is the greatest pitcher of this generation. Do you know the thing that Bedard and Santana do have in common? They are both 29 years old (soon to be that is; March 2008). In four years, Johan Santana has won 2 Cy Youngs and exceeded 235 strike-outs in each season. The best compliments given to Bedard is that he managed to win 13 on a very bad Orioles team. Ok, that is a bit harsh. The fact of the matter is that NO ONE is on Santana's level at the moment. Erik Bedard is a wonderful pitcher and has amazing stuff. I just think it is unfair to both Santana and Bedard to put them on the same level. Bedard's time line has been thrown off by a few injuries while Johan has become a stud. Bedard is in the midst of his explosion and I hope that he does take the next step towards the Santana-level. But frankly, when listing the top pitchers of the MLB, Bedard may not even be second or third behind Johan. But that is a different debate for a different day.

2. One year of team control vs. Two years of team control isn't a big enough difference to bridge the gap in talent

One of the major selling points on trading for Bedard over Santana back at the Winter Meetings was that trading for Santana was like paying the posting fee for a Japanese player since he only had one year left on his contract (at 13.75 million dollars). Anyone who traded for Santana would have to negotiate a huge contract negotiation, which would give them 6-8 years of Santana in their starting rotation. With Bedard, you could trade for him and not have to sign him immediately to a contract extension since he would be under team control for at least 2 seasons (salary control that is). I just have to ask, why is this a benefit? Any team that traded for either Santana or Bedard and failed to lock them up for multiple seasons would have made a bad trade. In the case of Santana, no trade will happen without an extension due to his No-Trade Clause. This is not the case with Bedard. Lets say that Angelos realizes that his team needs a one-to-two year reset and trades Bedard to Seattle. If Seattle sent that package of prospects over and didn't sign Bedard long term and Bedard walks in a few years, how can that trade be considered a success? The Mets are locking up Santana from 29 to 35/36 most likely. Without any major injuries, thats at least 4 years of this super human pitcher and another 2-3 years of just a 'regular' ace. A little over the top, I know, but that to me justifies mortgaging the future. You gave up years of the younger players for years of Johan. With Bedard, there is a chance that he will hate Seattle. He has no say in where he is traded (like a NTC or Limited NTC). If this deal goes down, and he decides,"I'm just going to play, win my arbitration hearing every year, and walk at age 33 and probably get a pretty great deal then from a better market or better location", how can you justify everything you sacrificed to get him there?

3. The Mets needed Johan Santana. The Mariners really like adding Erik Bedard.

A small disclaimer: Every team in MLB need starting pitcher. With so many teams in the MLB, the talent has become somewhat diluted in that there are 3rd/4th/5th starters that are considered solid options that might not have even played back in the days of a smaller league. So when I am differentiating between the Mets needing Santana and the Orioles adding Bedard, its already given that no team can have too much start pitching.

That being said, there are so many other needs for the Seattle Mariners that adding a starter might not have been #1 on the list of things to fix. The Seattle Mariners's rotation is not pretty to look at but it has it's current and future ace already in Felix Hernandez (I prefer King Felix) and signed Carlos Silva to a deal that he probably didn't deserve but that doesn't take away from the fact that Carlos Silva is a decent SP. It is not ready to face off against Beckett-Schilling-The Dice Man or CC/Carmona, but it isn't exactly horrendous either. One of the biggest problems the Mariners have is that they lack flexibility due to some poor signings. Richie Sexson was a mistake and hasn't really given much back for how much he was signed for. Beltre benefited from a perfectly timed career year and has had decent/good numbers since but nothing to match the numbers that he used to cash in a few years ago. They have somewhat of an offensive liability at SS and I don't think we can have a whole lot of confidence that Jose Lopez will be replicating his 2006 numbers or maybe even his 2007 numbers. Their DH is Jose Vidro (I dont think I need to really elaborate on that point...awesome as an Expo 2nd baseman, not so awesome as an American League DH). You get the idea. I will admit that I don't even know the Seattle Mariners as well as I know many other Major League teams yet I was able to rattle off at least 3 holes that should have been fixed before trading for Ace 1B. While Matt and I agree that OF prospects are especially hard to tell, Adam Jones is projected at #1 or #2 at all 3 OF spots on the depth chart of the Seattle Mariners. I feel that tells you the kind of impact the kid was expected to have and what his absence might mean to the team, especially if people start to get hurt throughout the season. Also, even if they get Bedard to sign a huge extension, doesn't that take away from their flexibility as an organization even more?

The Mets on the other hand are fresh off their historic collapse (awww, the New York clubs have something in common again) and managed to lose a proven innings eater (and former ace) in Tom Glavine. From the optimistic Mets's fan (Read as: Matt Dahl before Jan. 1st 2008), they weren't worried cause in 2008 there would be a full season of a healthy Pedro, John Maine after his break out season, and Ollie Perez has finally arrived and was here to be Pedro Jr. Realistically (Read as: Matt Dahl after Jan. 1st 2008), the Met's rotation is a collection of question marks. Similiar to Bedard's situation, John Maine is simply coming off a good season. That doesn't make him the next NY ace. I like Oliver Perez. I have since he debuted in Pittsburgh. You see flashes of greatness sometimes, but he is what he is: inconsistent. If he comes out in 2008 and is a true ace, then its an added bonus, but you can't bank your entire rotation and team on that. The Mets needed to send a message to their team, fans, and the city of New York that they were ready to fight for the NL East. Beyond the sentimental value of adding Santana, they really needed an anchor to their pitching staff. They didn't have the luxary of a King Felix. They have the old King and potentially some wonderful Princes, but Seattle had an ace (even if he isn't perfect yet) and the Mets really didnt. They needed to make this trade because they had a huge hole they needed to fill. Adding Bedard to Seattle will make Seattle a better team, I just wonder if those prospects/money could have fixed a few other places and made them even better.

I hope Seattle gets Bedard and he wins 20 games next season while winning the AL Cy Young. Meanwhile, Adam Jones becomes a nice fourth outfielder but nothing more in Baltimore. For all you supporters of the trade, I welcome you to hold your breath waiting for that to happen. I'd rather breath easy and criticize from afar and just hope I end up being right.

But that's just me.

Tune into Matt and Joe Radio Starting February 10th on BlogTalkRadio

Santana and Bedard: Worth the Farm

It’s baseball’s big question; do you trade away the keys to your minor league system for the quick fix player? In some cases, no way (i.e. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano), but when the deal is there for you team to go from good to great, you must get it done.

This winter has been swarmed with talks of the Minnesota Twins moving Johan Santana and the Baltimore Orioles moving Erik Bedard. Also, let’s not forget that the Oakland Athletics very quickly moved Dan Haren. Pitching wins, and those three you could argue were three of the best five AL pitchers last season.

Now the question that always comes into play when acquiring a big time pitcher is how long can he last? Or how many years can we really put into one guy? The two largest free agent contracts given to pitchers in this millennium (Mike Hampton’s 8-year/$121 million deal and Barry Zito’s 7-year/$126 million deal) have not looked so pretty. Hampton’s turned into the biggest waste of money since Ryan Leaf signed an NFL contract. And while the jury is still out on Zito, he has done nothing but decline in the last few years.

Now the Mets took the risk of giving away the prospects to get Santana, and are all set to take the risk of a long term agreement to a pitcher. Johan Santana is the ultimate exception. The best pitcher in baseball deserves to be treated like the best. Much like I had no problem with giving Mike Piazza what was then the biggest contract in baseball (7 years/$91 million… the game has come a long way), I have no problem giving Santana the biggest amount of pitcher’s money in baseball.

Moving onto Erik Bedard, which Joe touched up upon two nights ago. Not to play devil’s advocate against the sucker for young talent that Joe is, I feel the Seattle Mariners need to deal their youth to land Bedard. It will ultimately help restore the team back to full credibility and provide a team with plenty of talent a serious shot at the postseason.

The Mariners toyed with the AL Wild Card for a little last season, but their pitching had glaring holes. Felix Hernandez is good, but he’s young. From there it’s no one special, just some guys who will give you a solid six inning each time out. An addition of Bedard heavily bolsters the staff, as it would slide Hernandez down to the No. 2 slot and takes a load of pressure of him. Now Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn and Horacio Ramirez would be able to round out the 3, 4 and 5 spots… a respectable 3, 4 and 5 that is.

The Mariners would also be wise to bringing in Bedard the same offseason the best pitcher of the AL West in 2007 left the division (Haren). While it would all be on paper, the Mariners would have to be a solid pick to compete with the Angles who always just seem to be a team that’s there.

And even outside of the AL West this deal helps the Mariners. Look around the American League. You’ve got Sabathia and Carmona in Cleveland, Beckett and Schilling in Boston, Verlander, Willis and Co. in Detroit, and now you could have Berdard and Hernandez in Seattle. That definitely gives the Mariners are better shot at holding ground than it would with Hernandez and Batista at the top.

It’s a sensible move and worth the youth. Adam Jones could flop like anyone from the endless list for five-tool prospects have. To be successful, you’ve got to take some chances. Take a plunge in the deep-end, and it’s hard to argue taking that plunge with Erik Bedard.

But then again, Erik Bedard's fate is controlled by Peter Angelos, the biggest jackass in baseball. So this Bedard saga may be far from over. Hang tight, folks.

Don't Mess With Johan

Joe lays it out right below; Johan Santana will be going to the Mets. Of course pending a physical and agreement to a contract extension. They have a 72-hour window to reach that agreement, but it will be no problem since Fred Wilpon has already come out saying he will pay Santana.

I've been saying it all along that the Mets could turn their winter from a bad one to a great one with one move, and that move is Santana. Omar Minaya did a tremendous job getting this deal done. I was a doubter back in November when hearing it would cost Jose Reyes to get Santana, then I was reluctant when I heard it would cost Fernando Martinez and Carlos Gomez to get him, but I caved around the New Year realizing whatever the cost of prospects is, they had to do it. After the collapse of last season and the lack of improvement this winter, the Mets absolutely needed to add an ace, and why not get the best.

Omar did what he had to do and that's entirely shake up the rotation. Santana-Pedro-Maine-Perez-El Duque looks great to me. You now have the two most winning pitchers in the game at the front of your staff. That should strike fear into all.

This is a very similar position for the Mets as it was in 2000 when acquiring Mike Hampton, but at much great lengths. Santana compels the Mets into a force, no longer a question.

More will come as the news comes. But really a great day to be a Mets fan.

Pitchers and catchers can't come soon enough.

Santana to the Mets: Matt Dahl's Dream Come True

The Mets have won the Santana Sweepstakes.

Here is the package. Obviously this is still pending the completion of an extension:

Mets Get:

• Johan Santana: Career: 93-44, 3.22 ERA, 1381 Ks. Not an official stat, but arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
  

Twins Get:

• Philip Humber
  
• Carlos Gomez


• Deolis Guerra


• Kevin Mulvey
  

The extension will most likely be for 6-7 years and over $150 million.

I'll let Matt dissect this one. He knows his Mets.

Here is the full story from ESPN. Nothing special.

Tune into Matt and Joe Radio Starting February 10th on BlogTalkRadio

Bedard to Seattle: When Pitching Holds the World Ransom

Before I enter into this post, let me just say that I know the insane value placed on pitching in the Major Leagues. I can't even begin to put a value on someone like Erik Bedard. (Click Here for Bedard's Stats)

• He's young.
• He's under team control for two more years.
• He's left handed.
• He has won in the toughest division in baseball (AL East).

I'll admit here that I believe that he will be a great pitching in the MLB (barring any major injury of course). Acknowledging all of this, I can't help but question the deal from the Seattle Mariners' side.

Lets go off the three main components of the trade (with the fourth player not really decided on/released to the public):

Adam Jones: Five Star OF/SS Prospect
George Sherrill: Relief Pitcher; 2007 Stat Line: IP: 45.7 ERA: 2.36
Chris Tillman: Four Star SP Prospect; Seattle Mariners Minor League Pitcher of the Year

I think there is very little left unsaid about Adam Jones. While no prospects are sure things, he has the tools to become a great outfielder. He is obviously the centerpiece of this package. He was slotted in to compete for an OF position this spring training. Oh, and he happens to be only 22 years old. He only has 73 games of MLB experience, so he still has plenty of years under team control (six). Again, we all know what is said of Adam Jones and what everyone expects out of him. Five star prospects are a special bunch but its not just Adam Jones that makes me want to put the brakes on this trade.

On top of six years of Adam Jones, the Mariners are also throwing in a four star prospect in Chris Tillman. Tillman was named the Mariners' Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Is Tillman the on the same level of Bedard? No, but he has shown the ability to be a very good pitcher. He needs to limit the number of base-runners he allows but he is a high level prospect and is only 19 years old (will be 20 by the start of the season). I guess it is worth mentioning that he is 'only' a right handed pitcher. I hope it goes without saying that the last sentence was dripping in sarcasm. Tillman does not have any exposure at the MLB level but it working his way through the system. Like any prospect, there is a lot of uncertainity around Chris Tillman but if there was ever a true 'can't miss prospect', he would never be traded and wouldn't be a prospect for long. The Orioles are taking him in the package because of his potential and because he will be under their control for at least 7 years (which gives him time to develop into the pitcher he will be). As a four star prospect, I wouldn't project Tillman to be an ace like Bedard can be, but I also wouldn't project him as a lifer in the MiLB.

Sherrill produced some very serviceable numbers in 2007. I use the word serviceable not because of his ERA but because of the lack of innings and his adjusted ERA for 2007 forecasts him closer to 4.00 than 2.00. He is 30 years old and can be a good reliever at the MLB level. He is a left handed pitcher with the stuff to potentially close in the AL East. As a matter of fact, many see him as a front runner for the closer position in Baltimore if the trade is completed. With the price and need for relief pitching, he has value even though its obviously not as high as Jones' or maybe even Tillman's. I don't believe Sherrill to be a potential stud closer, but the opinion on Sherrill ranges from a very good MLB reliever to a great reliever throughout the baseball world. He would help sure up Baltimore's bullpen even if he isn't closing at first.

I imagine the fourth prospect is not going to be a random throw-in but the clubs have not leaked who it will be. Again, I won't even begin to speculate who this fourth player could be because it could range from the likes of Jeff Clement to a much lower level prospect. I don't think it includes Jeff Clement personally, but would you be surprised if Baltimore was holding out for such a package while the Twins hold Johan ransom?

So you have a stud outfield prospect (who started as a SS prospect and is seen as a possible center fielder), a four star pitching prospect, and a decent middle relief guy. All of this plus another player for two years of Erik Bedard. I say two years because I feel it is a bit presumptuous to assume Seattle will be able to lock Bedard up long term. It is the same reason why I won't assume that Seattle would lock up Jones past his 7 years under team control. With the way the free agent market inflates contracts, it is getting harder and harder to entice players to leave some money on the table for a few years of security (Obviously, there are still exceptions a la Troy Tulowitzki).

Two years is all you can count on. What if Bedard likes the East Coast? What if Seattle can't afford to dish out the money Bedard knows will come from New York, Boston, Chicago, etc...? Obviously my opinion on the trade will be different if Bedard signs a huge extension that will probably end up being a discount being the price of starting pitching goes up each year, but you can't assume that will happen. Even if Bedard signs with Seattle, you just paid the ransom in players for the 'opportunity' to tie up possibly anywhere between $15-$20 million a year in one player? Ask the New York Yankees how that strategy has worked for them since the 2001 season. To be fair, at least the Yankees only forfeit a single draft pick each time they add to their 'all-star team'. In comparison, Seattle would be paying top dollar and losing two of their top 3 prospects. These arguments have been beaten to death with the Santana rumors flying around; however, no one complains about Bedard because of the fact that it isn't a one year rental.

I know I am sticking to the negative side of the questions that surround any trade. But to me, there are just as many questions around Bedard as there are Jones. Bedard's ace status is just a year old. He's always shown that sort of talent, but there have been a ton of 'aces' that turned out to be flashes in the pan. There are no serious worries about Bedard's health, but just to remind everyone: he was shut down at the end of last season with a strained muscle near his right rib cage. I bring this up only to show that for all the question marks about prospects, Bedard has a few of his own.

If I am Seattle, the price tag is already high when the deal involves Jones and Tillman. With the price of pitching, I can understand why it would take this much to get a top of the rotation sort of starter. I also understand the appeal of having a rotation that is headlined by King Felix and Erik Bedard. I wouldn't go as far to say that Seattle has a strength in starting pitching being their rotation is filled with the likes of Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, but I also don't think it is such a great need that it needs the addition of Erik Bedard. Other teams need a frontline starter like Erik Bedard. One team that I think might have to match the ridiculous prospect demands of the Orioles or Twins: The New York Mets. I don't agree with the packages being supposedly offered for Santana either, but if I am the Mets I can at least justify it a little more because their rotation is headlined by Pedro Martinez (injured most of 2007), John Maine (unreal numbers, especially first half of 2007), and Oliver Perez (he is two different pitchers depending on whether or not he can find the strike zone on that given day). They also still have the taste of that historic collapse in their collective mouth and have yet to do anything to really make the team better this offseason. I'm sure with Matt waiting in the wings, we'll talk about the Mets enough, so we don't need to go any further on that subject.

Again, I would love to add Erik Bedard to any rotation but this trade doesn't make sense from a personnel or financial stand point for the Seattle Mariners. I don't think Seattle is equipped to 'win now' even if Bedard is added to this rotation (I still think the true form of Felix Hernandez is at least half a season away). I think it would definitely put them into contention, but they aren't in the same category as the NY Mets in my opinion (as stated earlier). There are many other questions and taking Jones out of the RF slot would just adds another one. Maybe in a market like Seattle the only way to get the premiere players is to pay the price in prospects and get a small (very small) discount by signing them while they are still under team control. I am not dumb enough to think that Seattle could wait for Bedard to hit free agency and go toe-to-toe with the Red Sox/Yankees but I feel they are sacrificing a lot to have the opportunity to try and get Bedard to sign long term in the next two years. If I am going to pay a ransom, I'd rather have the best pitcher in baseball (Johan). I can pass on Bedard, at least at this price.

If I'm the Orioles, I jump on this package and then ship Roberts to the Cubs and have a retooled team that could potentially sport an outfield of Markakis, Pie, and Jones in 2008/2009. But, if the rumors are true, Peter Angelos might save Seattle from making the trade due to his love of 'his players'. If I'm the Seattle's GM, I hope he veto's it so you can avoid this trade and come out looking like a winner.

But that's just me.

Tune into Matt and Joe Radio Starting February 10th on BlogTalkRadio