Before I enter into this post, let me just say that I know the insane value placed on pitching in the Major Leagues. I can't even begin to put a value on someone like Erik Bedard. (Click Here for Bedard's Stats)
- He's young.
- He's under team control for two more years.
- He's left handed.
- He has won in the toughest division in baseball (AL East).
I'll admit here that I believe that he will be a great pitching in the MLB (barring any major injury of course). Acknowledging all of this, I can't help but question the deal from the Seattle Mariners' side.
Lets go off the three main components of the trade (with the fourth player not really decided on/released to the public):
Adam Jones: Five Star OF/SS Prospect
George Sherrill: Relief Pitcher; 2007 Stat Line: IP: 45.7 ERA: 2.36
Chris Tillman: Four Star SP Prospect; Seattle Mariners Minor League Pitcher of the Year
I think there is very little left unsaid about Adam Jones. While no prospects are sure things, he has the tools to become a great outfielder. He is obviously the centerpiece of this package. He was slotted in to compete for an OF position this spring training. Oh, and he happens to be only 22 years old. He only has 73 games of MLB experience, so he still has plenty of years under team control (six). Again, we all know what is said of Adam Jones and what everyone expects out of him. Five star prospects are a special bunch but its not just Adam Jones that makes me want to put the brakes on this trade.
On top of six years of Adam Jones, the Mariners are also throwing in a four star prospect in Chris Tillman. Tillman was named the Mariners' Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Is Tillman the on the same level of Bedard? No, but he has shown the ability to be a very good pitcher. He needs to limit the number of base-runners he allows but he is a high level prospect and is only 19 years old (will be 20 by the start of the season). I guess it is worth mentioning that he is 'only' a right handed pitcher. I hope it goes without saying that the last sentence was dripping in sarcasm. Tillman does not have any exposure at the MLB level but it working his way through the system. Like any prospect, there is a lot of uncertainity around Chris Tillman but if there was ever a true 'can't miss prospect', he would never be traded and wouldn't be a prospect for long. The Orioles are taking him in the package because of his potential and because he will be under their control for at least 7 years (which gives him time to develop into the pitcher he will be). As a four star prospect, I wouldn't project Tillman to be an ace like Bedard can be, but I also wouldn't project him as a lifer in the MiLB.
Sherrill produced some very serviceable numbers in 2007. I use the word serviceable not because of his ERA but because of the lack of innings and his adjusted ERA for 2007 forecasts him closer to 4.00 than 2.00. He is 30 years old and can be a good reliever at the MLB level. He is a left handed pitcher with the stuff to potentially close in the AL East. As a matter of fact, many see him as a front runner for the closer position in Baltimore if the trade is completed. With the price and need for relief pitching, he has value even though its obviously not as high as Jones' or maybe even Tillman's. I don't believe Sherrill to be a potential stud closer, but the opinion on Sherrill ranges from a very good MLB reliever to a great reliever throughout the baseball world. He would help sure up Baltimore's bullpen even if he isn't closing at first.
I imagine the fourth prospect is not going to be a random throw-in but the clubs have not leaked who it will be. Again, I won't even begin to speculate who this fourth player could be because it could range from the likes of Jeff Clement to a much lower level prospect. I don't think it includes Jeff Clement personally, but would you be surprised if Baltimore was holding out for such a package while the Twins hold Johan ransom?
So you have a stud outfield prospect (who started as a SS prospect and is seen as a possible center fielder), a four star pitching prospect, and a decent middle relief guy. All of this plus another player for two years of Erik Bedard. I say two years because I feel it is a bit presumptuous to assume Seattle will be able to lock Bedard up long term. It is the same reason why I won't assume that Seattle would lock up Jones past his 7 years under team control. With the way the free agent market inflates contracts, it is getting harder and harder to entice players to leave some money on the table for a few years of security (Obviously, there are still exceptions a la Troy Tulowitzki).
Two years is all you can count on. What if Bedard likes the East Coast? What if Seattle can't afford to dish out the money Bedard knows will come from New York, Boston, Chicago, etc...? Obviously my opinion on the trade will be different if Bedard signs a huge extension that will probably end up being a discount being the price of starting pitching goes up each year, but you can't assume that will happen. Even if Bedard signs with Seattle, you just paid the ransom in players for the 'opportunity' to tie up possibly anywhere between $15-$20 million a year in one player? Ask the New York Yankees how that strategy has worked for them since the 2001 season. To be fair, at least the Yankees only forfeit a single draft pick each time they add to their 'all-star team'. In comparison, Seattle would be paying top dollar and losing two of their top 3 prospects. These arguments have been beaten to death with the Santana rumors flying around; however, no one complains about Bedard because of the fact that it isn't a one year rental.
I know I am sticking to the negative side of the questions that surround any trade. But to me, there are just as many questions around Bedard as there are Jones. Bedard's ace status is just a year old. He's always shown that sort of talent, but there have been a ton of 'aces' that turned out to be flashes in the pan. There are no serious worries about Bedard's health, but just to remind everyone: he was shut down at the end of last season with a strained muscle near his right rib cage. I bring this up only to show that for all the question marks about prospects, Bedard has a few of his own.
If I am Seattle, the price tag is already high when the deal involves Jones and Tillman. With the price of pitching, I can understand why it would take this much to get a top of the rotation sort of starter. I also understand the appeal of having a rotation that is headlined by King Felix and Erik Bedard. I wouldn't go as far to say that Seattle has a strength in starting pitching being their rotation is filled with the likes of Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, but I also don't think it is such a great need that it needs the addition of Erik Bedard. Other teams need a frontline starter like Erik Bedard. One team that I think might have to match the ridiculous prospect demands of the Orioles or Twins: The New York Mets. I don't agree with the packages being supposedly offered for Santana either, but if I am the Mets I can at least justify it a little more because their rotation is headlined by Pedro Martinez (injured most of 2007), John Maine (unreal numbers, especially first half of 2007), and Oliver Perez (he is two different pitchers depending on whether or not he can find the strike zone on that given day). They also still have the taste of that historic collapse in their collective mouth and have yet to do anything to really make the team better this offseason. I'm sure with Matt waiting in the wings, we'll talk about the Mets enough, so we don't need to go any further on that subject.
Again, I would love to add Erik Bedard to any rotation but this trade doesn't make sense from a personnel or financial stand point for the Seattle Mariners. I don't think Seattle is equipped to 'win now' even if Bedard is added to this rotation (I still think the true form of Felix Hernandez is at least half a season away). I think it would definitely put them into contention, but they aren't in the same category as the NY Mets in my opinion (as stated earlier). There are many other questions and taking Jones out of the RF slot would just adds another one. Maybe in a market like Seattle the only way to get the premiere players is to pay the price in prospects and get a small (very small) discount by signing them while they are still under team control. I am not dumb enough to think that Seattle could wait for Bedard to hit free agency and go toe-to-toe with the Red Sox/Yankees but I feel they are sacrificing a lot to have the opportunity to try and get Bedard to sign long term in the next two years. If I am going to pay a ransom, I'd rather have the best pitcher in baseball (Johan). I can pass on Bedard, at least at this price.
If I'm the Orioles, I jump on this package and then ship Roberts to the Cubs and have a retooled team that could potentially sport an outfield of Markakis, Pie, and Jones in 2008/2009. But, if the rumors are true, Peter Angelos might save Seattle from making the trade due to his love of 'his players'. If I'm the Seattle's GM, I hope he veto's it so you can avoid this trade and come out looking like a winner.
But that's just me.
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