Risky Business: Rich Harden and the Chicago Cubs

I decided to give myself the night to sleep on it before I posted about Rich Harden. If I had tried to blog yesterday, I would have come off as an excited school girl who just got asked to prom by the captain of the football team. I've took some time and gathered my thoughts and I am now here to tell you all why this trade is probably the best trade for a starting pitcher this season (dating back to Bedard) and definitely better than the CC trade.

I'll state it here and now: Rich Harden has a history of injuries. I accept that and understand that for awhile (if not for the rest of the season), we might only see 5-6 innings a start out of Rich Harden. Every pitcher is an injury waiting to happen - pitching is one of the most unnatural motions we force our bodies to do. Rich Harden has been injured more than most, but as of right now he is strung together a nice streak of quality and healthy starts. I believe Hendry said it best that if he didn't have these health issues recently, he wouldn't even be on the market. While you would love to be getting a Rich Harden whose made 30 starts the last three years and has been just as electrifying throughout it all, he wouldn't have been available and even if he was you weren't going to get him without a package including your top two or three prospects.

That being said, obviously the package obtained by the A's reflect those concerns. There is no Carlos Gomez, no Matt LaPorta, and definitely no Adam Jones in this package. Matt Murton has hovered between Triple A and a 4th outfielder even though he is/was touted to be much more than that. Sean Gallagher is a young and talented pitcher. He could bloom into something good (not great), but there is a risk he won't. With any prospect, it is a very real possibility that nothing will come of their talent they have shown at lower levels of competitive play. So while I completely see the risk of Rich Harden, at least we know he can play and dominate at the Major League level. Not many people can say that about their talent and execution. If I could have made a package without Gallagher, I would have, but he is the only part of the package that I am somewhat going to miss.

While Murton was shuffling back and forth between MLB and Triple A, Eric Patterson proved he can play but was still not hitting enough. He is an OF and can play second base. The OF is a bit full with Soriano, Fukudome, and Pie (eventually). Even after that, DeRosa is still hanging around for another year. Long story short - We have a bit of a jam in the OF/2B position. I wasn't sold on Patterson (maybe I'm still hurting from Corey) so again, he is someone that I won't miss. We sold from a relative strength in our OF since we've been able to get players from the free agent pool. The final piece was a Double A catcher Josh Donaldson. With Soto showing he can field and hit his position well, I don't mind sending a low ball catcher away in a package.

This post started with me accepting that there is a huge risk in getting Rich Harden. Well, there is a huge risk that Matt Murton never becomes more than a 4th outfielder. That Sean Gallagher is never more than a mediocre pitcher. That Eric Patterson never finds his swing in the big leagues. These are the risks you see with all prospects and the reason why you try to hold onto them is because you hope they reward you with success in the MLB. No one in that package offers the reward that Rich Harden offers if he does put his injuries behind him. On top of the fact that his upside outweighs all of the others, the Cubs also got the A's to put an insurance policy into the deal: Chad Gaudin. Is he Harden? No. But this isn't a deal that if Harden goes on the DL we can officially say we handed the A's four prospects.

There is one more aspect of this trade that I'm excited for that is more of an intangible. The idea of competition within a team is not always a bad thing. Kevin Garnett talked about what it felt like to truly play with people he considered on his skill level in Boston. It often drives you to play up to your maximum potential. That isn't to say Garnett wasn't trying in Minnesota, but sometimes you don't even realize you have another level until the skill around you catches up to your own level. Carlos Zambrano hasn't had another ace on his staff since 2003. In 2003, he was sort of the young, wild guy who was hoping to be Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (I still get emotional thinking about it...). After that, Big Z was on his own here to lead the staff. He has done well and pitched like an #1 pitcher. I personally want to see what Harden and Zambrano do for one another. I won't claim that this had anything to do with Zambrano 8 inning 1 hitter against the Reds tonight but hopefully you can see my point. There will never be a way to measure it or even be sure it is happening, but I think adding a pitcher of Harden's quality to a group of good pitchers brings everyone up a level. Aside from the rotation, Harden can hopefully help the bullpen as well. While he might not eat innings, you can actually rotate your bullpen pitchers into games a lot better if you are calling for them in 4-0 and 5-0 games instead of going to the same guys that you look to in close games.

And on top of all this, Rich Harden isn't even a rental. The Cubs control Harden for '08 and '09. So when the Brewers have to accept two draft picks and hope they find the diamond in the rough in next year's draft, the Mariners trade away Erik Bedard for pennies on the dollar because their team sits in last place, the Diamondbacks hope that not all 5 prospects sent over to Oakland turn out to be studs even though Haren has been great, and the Mets pray that Santana is worth the money in years 4 and 5 of his deal, the Cubs get a year and a half of one of the best pitchers in baseball. If they are smart and they watch his pitch count, which is hard because when he strikes out 8 in 4 innings and hasn't allowed a hit you think its going to be an off day for your bullpen but he needs to throw a lot of pitches sometimes to get those strikeouts, and give him that extra day each time it comes up throughout the season, the Cubs will put Harden in the best position possible to remain healthy. The Cubs also have 6 starters (Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Marquis, Harden, and Marshall), a starter turned reliever (Lieber) and a reliever-starter hybrid (Gaudin). Obviously some of those names are more marketable than others but adding Harden may turn the Cubs into a minor seller at the trading deadline in order to add a prospect or maybe address other needs. There is always a need for a starting pitcher and teams who need to trade for them (the New York Yankees anyone?). It just opens the door for Hendry to throw a few more names around the league.

As a Cubs fan, I am not saying that this is a flat out steal of a deal because I realize that he needs to stay healthy, but I can only help but smile when I think about what it might be like if he does. Forget the curse and the World Series, lets just see 6 quality innings this Saturday. I'll be wearing my Rich Harden T-Shirt Jersey until then.

The Return - Matt and Joe Radio - July 10th 2008 - 10 PM - Listen Here